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2024年5月20日 · 概要. 市场对美联储重新燃起的鸽派希望以及相关风险偏好的上升近期令美元受挫。 不过，我们认为，未来几周进一步下跌的空间有限，部分原因在于美国利率较高。 避险情绪和欧洲的鸽派动向或将推动美元重回年初以来的高点。 美国经济增长不及预期，加之股市上涨，导致美元走软. 美元最近遭受利率和风险情绪的双重打击 。 美国经济活动数据弱于预期，加上 4 月份通胀数据未能继续高于预期（图 1）。 这重新燃起了市场对美联储的鸽派期盼，并有助推动了风险偏好，使美元承受下行压力。 进入联邦公开市场委员会开会前的静默期之前，美联储官员的言论可能是关键因素. 然而，对美元的双重打击也可能变成双重利好力量。
2024年5月27日 · FX Viewpoint: AUD and NZD: Consolidate; ending 2024 on a higher note. 27 May 2024. Special warning. HSBC prepared this video based on the information that it believes to be reliable at the time of shooting. However, the FX market moves very quickly and the views presented in the video may no longer be up-to-date and are subject to change ...
5 天前 · The JPY is the worst performing G10 currency so far this year, with the CHF not far behind (Chart 1). As major central banks are in no rush to cut rates soon, cross-asset volatility remains low, which sets the stage for carry trades [@fx-viewpoint-2024-06-03-1] at the expense of low-yielding currencies, like the JPY and CHF.
2024年5月16日 · In our economists’ view, the higher tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on overall US-China trade flows, given: (1) most of these goods were already subject to additional duties, (2) the targeted goods comprise just 4% of total US imports from China, (3) it was widely expected that existing Section 301 tariffs would be retained, an...
2024年5月23日 · Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been on a roller-coaster ride, swinging from too enthusiastic in Q1 to quite conservative at the time of writing as inflation has proved stickier than expected. As rate cuts are just a matter of time, we lock in current attractive bond yields. In equities, we see a richer set of opportunities across geographies and sectors, driven by broadening global ...
2024年5月27日 · 概要. 5 月 22 日，新西兰储备银行传递出鹰派信号。 同样，澳大利亚储备银行被视为维持“更长时间的限制性”政策立场。 我们预计，除非找到外部支撑，否则澳元和新西兰元在短期内或失去上涨动力。 新西兰储备银行的立场比预期的更为鹰派. 5 月 22 日，新西兰储备银行意外传递鹰派信号。 尽管新西兰储备银行维持政策利率在 5.5%不变，但该行最新预测显示，政策利率峰值提高至 5.65%（此前预测为 5.60%），以及降息时间将推迟到 2025 年第三季（此前为 2025 年第二季）。 新西兰储备银行讨论了加息的可能性 ，不过它承认目前的总需求与供给能力基本符合。 我们认为，新西兰元的强势似乎仅是昙花一现，并可能失去动力.
2024年5月30日 · AUD fell against the dollar yesterday amid rising UST yields and risk aversion sentiment which supported USD. While Australia’s monthly CPI rose 3.6% YoY in April, surpassing the expected readings of 3.4% and 3.5% prior. AUDUSD fell 0.56% yesterday while AUDHKD ended at 5.16 level.
