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  1. 2024年4月29日 · 概要. 我們預計美元將延續強勢,但短期內進一步大升的難度較大。 市場已經對聯儲局減息預期進行了明顯的重新定價,不過較高的美債收益率可能會推動美元逐步上升。 地緣政治緊張局勢和避險情緒可能會進一步推動美元走強,儘管這種關係並不那麼可靠。 市場大幅調整聯儲局減息預期對美元構成支撐. 2024 年以來,美元一直跑贏其他十國集團貨幣,美匯指數(DXY)的年內漲幅約為4.5%(彭博資訊,2024 年4 月25 日)。 原因主要在於市場對美國聯邦儲備局(簡稱「聯儲局」或「美聯準」)潛在減息幅度和時點的預期出現大幅回落。 今年年初,市場預期聯儲局政策利率將下調約150 個基點(即1.5%),到2024 年底降至3.90%,但目前預期年底的利率為5%。

  2. 2024年5月2日 · The FOMC announced that the cap on redemptions of US Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet will fall to USD25bn per month as of 1 June 2024, down from USD60bn per month currently. As a result, our economists estimate that overall quantitative tightening (QT), including ongoing reductions in the Fed’s holdings of mortgage-backed securities, will fall to cUSD45bn per month from ...

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  4. 6 天前 · Recent US data have thrown the Fed’s plans to enact a policy pivot off course. The primary problem is sticky inflation; the Fed’s preferred price gauge jumped 3.7% q/q annualised in Q1, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. Q1 GDP came in below expectations but masked still-strong consumer spending, while some keenly watched ...

  5. 2024年4月23日 · The USD is leading other G10 currencies so far in 2024, supported by a big shift in the pricing of Fed cuts. For the USD to stay ahead, other support would probably be needed, including the existing level of USD yields, dovish moves outside the US, and possible bouts of risk aversion. We see the GBP, the AUD, and NZD facing near-term downside ...

  6. 2024年5月2日 · Moved Permanently. The document has moved here.

  7. 2024年4月15日 · 2. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 11 April 2024, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report. 3. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business.

  8. 2024年4月29日 · vs USD 1.3527 / 1.3828 . vs HKD 5.6603 / 5.7850. CAD weakened against the US dollar on Friday after touching its strongest level since Apr 10, however for the week CAD strengthened 0.6%. A preliminary estimate showed Canadian Wholesale trade fell 1.3% in Mar. USDCAD rose 0.10% last Friday while CADHKD ended at 5.72 level.

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